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Views from our Multi-Asset Fund Managers
Views from our Multi-Asset Fund Managers
Aviva Investors: Summary
Aviva Investors report that markets reacted calmly to the US strikes on Iran because they were widely expected. Oil, the dollar and gold rose slightly, while equities fell only modestly typical of a mild, oil‑led risk‑off move. Their main concern is the near‑halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could push oil above $100 a barrel if disruptions persist.
They emphasise that the economic impact depends on how long higher oil prices last: a sustained $100 level would weaken global growth, lift inflation, especially in oil‑importing economies, and could delay central‑bank rate cuts. With Iran’s wider regional retaliation and the risk of a longer conflict, uncertainty remains elevated. Aviva notes their portfolios hold no direct Iranian exposure and are diversified to withstand geopolitical shocks.
Cantor Fitzgerald: Summary
Cantor Fitzgerald entered 2026 with exceptionally low portfolio risk, having judged markets to be both expensive and complacent in the face of rising geopolitical tension. As markets rallied, they used the strength to further de risk, adding hedges in alternatives, increasing energy exposure in equities, and taking long oil positions across their multi asset range, reflecting their view that oil and gas markets were mispricing the growing military threat in the Middle East. They also significantly reduced US bank exposure as credit conditions weakened and maintained a meaningful overweight to the US dollar for its haven qualities.
Given fast moving developments and the fact that much of the global market had yet to open at the time of writing, they note it is too early to judge portfolio impact, but they believe their actions should help protect capital in the short term while positioning the funds to re enter risk assets at better valuations. With uncertainty still rising, they do not expect to add risk in the immediate term.
L&G: Summary
L&G note that markets were prepared for the US–Israel strikes, with oil rising about 10% and equities falling modestly. They see the macro impact hinging on how long any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz lasts, given its importance for global oil and LNG flows. Although the goal of regime change raises the risk of a longer conflict, L&G’s base case is that energy disruption will likely be temporary, allowing markets to refocus once clarity improves. Their exposure to the region is modest, with no direct Iranian holdings, and portfolios remain diversified, underweight credit and neutral equity. They stress maintaining discipline and a long‑term approach amid elevated uncertainty.
Keep calm and stay invested
As uncertainty rises, your role in helping clients stay calm, avoid reactive decisions, and remain focused on long‑term goals is more important than ever. While market volatility may increase, history shows that geopolitical shocks often stabilise once the energy‑supply implications are clearer. Providing reassurance, perspective, and disciplined guidance will be essential in the coming days.
To support these conversations, you can revisit the Seven Lessons in Long-Term Investing presentation and share it with clients to reinforce long‑term investment principles.
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Key risks
Investment & Currency Risk
The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise and may be affected by movements in currency and exchange rates. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Emerging Market Risk
Investments in emerging markets may be volatile and can carry higher risk than those in developed markets due to political, economic, and structural vulnerabilities.
Derivatives Risk
Some portfolios may use derivatives, which can be complex, may not perform as expected, and can be highly volatile. Their use may lead to significant losses.
Sector, Region or Security Mention
Any reference to companies, sectors, or markets is for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
General Information
This material is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to engage in any investment activity. Views expressed may change without notice and should not be relied upon as a guarantee of future outcomes. While information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.
Investors are responsible for understanding and complying with all applicable laws and regulations relevant to their jurisdiction. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland Designated Activity Company, is a private company limited by shares, registered in Ireland No. 165970. Registered office at Building 12, Cherrywood Business Park, Loughlinstown, Co. Dublin, D18 W2P5. Tel (01) 898 7950, www.aviva.ie
Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland Designated Activity Company, trading as Aviva Life & Pensions Ireland and Friends First, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
